2014年1月24日星期五

Where is the money and Amazon

I am taking an exam recently so the update may be slow.

It is interesting to ask Federal Reserve a question, "In the last five years, you have released more than more than 4 trillion dollars, where is the money?"

It seems there is no inflation and all economic indicator shows a positive future. Dose the money have that magic?

My question is no. Although lots of economists, reviewers and policy-makers are optimistic to the recovery and next  flourish period, I doubt about it by the question I mentioned above.
Please see a simple graph:

This is the M2 and GDP and the ratio of M2 to GDP graph.
If we just take a look at GDP or M2, it is OK. However, the point is the ratio of M2/GDP. It usually measure the level of the capitalization or financialization of a country. Usually, the developed country has a higher than developing country and this ratio is usually over one. However, U.S. is an exception. The reason is complicated but mostly from its high consumption preference. When this ratio increases, it means more and more money flows to the investment to the future, which obviously lead a flourish of the capital market, especially stock market. However, the problem is that a huge increasing in short time is pushed from the external factor, QE, which the investment is all encouraged by the Federal Reserve. 

A policy-made low interest rate will twist the real capital cost, which high probably leads a systematic investment fault. It is rarely to see all industries have the technology revolution at the same time. Hence, the market flourish is lack of fundamental but established by a good-will or perspective. It is risky.

As long the Internet technology, data exploitation or other concepts are not strong to support the good-will or perspective, the investment will get nothing return, and thus all market price will crash down to eliminate the part of future confidence. It is risky.

I didn't get enough data on that but I guess that 1) the P/E ratio of U.S. stock market was increasing for the past several years and will continuously increase in the next few month; 2) The number of the listed companies who are losing money was increasing and will increase in the next few month; 3) The Standard Deviation of the P/E in U.S. market will become big, which shows a gap between confidence and real profitability. 

Amazon

Amazon has an outstanding advantage on their platform. Neither Google Play nor iTunes can compete with the Amazon. B&N is losing money that the market share is much lower than Amazon. 
The platform advantage gives the Amazon strong ability to collect customers' preference which can be digitized for data-driven promotion. On the other hand, Amazon is developing the new logistic technique although I doubt that UVA logistic. The future of logistic, in my opinion, should focus on order prediction. For example, the textbooks should be sent to the storage where is nearby the university when the new semester is coming. It focuses on data exploitation.

Amazon has a nice and clean financial statement, the sales increased excellent. The gross margin is good. The management cost increased a little faster than the sales but barely satisfied. The R&D  increased dramatically, which mostly influenced by the market trend. I am worried about that as mentioned above.

The Amazon is at the dominated position in the vertical industry chain because it has lots of account payable, while it can be treated as the short term loan. The debt structure is health that most of debt is long term borrowing. 

Overall, the Amazon itself is an excellent company. However, because I do not do a technical analysis, it is hard to say take long or short position on that. 

没有评论:

发表评论